December 30TH, 2016:
November 6TH, 2016:
The highest five day total of hits on my Panic Scale occurs in the few days after the election. Coincidence
or hidden order?
October 23RD, 2016:
Here's the Bottoms Indicator for the entire year with S&P 500 results. You can see that the January/February
cluster of lows coincided with the market correction at the beginning of the year. The all-time high for the
SPX on 8/15 coincided with the 8/18 extreme top in the indicator. Interestingly, the midpoint of the 8/15 and
8/23 retest intraday SPX tops falls exactly on 8/18 in trading days. The area in the chart between the red lines
is mostly noise and attributed to the partly random nature of the markets. What we're really interested in are
those extreme readings outside the red lines because that's the area where randomness yields to predictability.
The extreme low reading for 2016 is coming up on 12/9.
October 2ND, 2016:
The Panic Scale has been uploaded for the fourth quarter. The second week in October and Thanksgiving
weekend show the highest spikes on the scale for the fourth quarter. The 9/29 spike coincided exactly with
reports that hedge funds were pulling out of Deutsche Bank, igniting fears of another 2008 style banking
crisis. The market quickly recovered the next day but this may be a continuing theme over the next few weeks.
September 9TH, 2016:
Major indices were down over two percent today. September 12th is the most extreme reading on my
Panic Scale for the second half of 2016.
June 18TH, 2016:
I've updated the Panic Scale for the third quarter and the Bottoms Indicator for the second half of 2016 (see links).
May 31ST, 2016:
The next date of interest on my Panic Scale (see link) is June 3rd. More interesting, though, is that the very next
trading day, June 6th, exhibits the same trading day signature that also occurred on October 9th, 2008 at the height of the 2008
stock market crash. The signature doesn't always produce a crash but it doesn't happen very often and the odds of it coinciding
exactly with the crash and being attributed to chance is very slim. The Panic Scale is derived from calendar day relationships and
forces between stock market panics but when these forces act upon traders and are translated into actual trades by traders within the
confines of trading days, certain predictable patterns may emerge to warn traders of impending danger. If the trading day signature
was not a coincidence in 2008, it is warning of another potential crash the week of June 6th.
MAY 1ST, 2016:
The 1929 Panic Spiral. A spiral linking the 1929, 2000 and 2015 panics is anchored to the anniversary of
the 5/6/2010 "Flash Crash." That May 6th, 2010 panic was also the product of cycles and was predicted by myself,
as shown in the second chart below which I originally published in 2010.
Also, it is interesting to note that 5/2/2016 forms a perfect golden mean ratio of trading days between the panics
of 10/19/87 and 8/31/1998.
APRIL 16TH, 2016:
The market has rallied right into the big 4/17 turn on my bottoms indicator. The market ignored
the March turns but, if the indicator is back on track, the market should be down from now into June.
MARCH 31ST, 2016:
The April Fool's Day Panic Spiral. A Fibonacci spiral linking the 1987, 1998 and 2015 panics is anchored to April Fool's Day.
MARCH 19TH, 2016:
The panic scale has been updated (see link) and April 4th is the next date of interest. The rally off
the 2/11 lows has extended futher than anticipated but the big bottoms date of 3/24 on the bottoms
indicator looms large. Next week could be very rough if the bottoms indicator exerts its influence.
MARCH 4TH, 2016:
My interpretation of market action is that the market made an important top today right into the 3/5
spike on my Panic Scale and 3/6 top on the Bottoms Indicator. These two indicators confirm that
we may have seen an important emotional extreme in bullish optimism this past week and a new leg
down in the bear market is about to begin. Short-term, there is now a lot of downward pressure on
the market into March 24th.
MARCH 3RD, 2016:
The Bottoms Indicator has a top on 3/6 and the Panic Scale has a panic spike on 3/5. So far, the Bottoms
Indicator is prevailing.
FEBRUARY 22ND, 2016:
The rally off the 2/11 low looks a lot like the rally in 1929, just prior to the crash. The highest reading on my
panic scale for all of 2016 occurs on March 5th (see panic scale). This may just be a coincidence but it is lining up
eerily with market action in 1929. Since the panic scale is calculated years in advance, it is not a case of just waiting
for the market to start selling off and then "jumping on the bandwagon" at the last minute to predict a stock market
panic. The indicator precedes stock market activity so, when I see the market echoing crashes in the past around my
important panic dates, I pay attention and give it more weight. There was a 2/20 spike on my panic scale this past
weekend which resulted in a nearly eight percent rally (intraday) in a little over a week. If the market reverses soon
and takes out the 2/11 lows, it will be a confirmation that we could see a panic into the weekend of 3/5.
FEBRUARY 5TH, 2016:
The tulip echo continues. 379 years ago today, February 5th, is the actual day the tulip trade was first supended.
According to Earl Thompson, author of "The Tulipmania: Fact or Artifact?", word of a possible trading suspension
reached traders on February 2nd and 3rd, after which prices sagged until the actual suspension of trading at the
market center of Alkmaer on February 5th, 1637.
An index of tulip prices was created by Thompson (shown below).
From 2/3 to 2/9, the tulip index lost approximately 25% of its value and it is estimated that the index lost 90% of
its value within six weeks. Now, there were extenuating circumstances for the intensity and magnitude of the 1637
decline, related to futures and options trading, and I'm not predicting a ninety percent decline in six weeks; but the
cyclical parallels to the bursting of the tulip bubble, along with my Market Bottoms and Panic Scale indicators, make
the next several weeks a very dangerous time for world stock markets.
FEBRUARY 2ND, 2016:
The Tulip Echo. 379 years ago today, one of the greatest speculative manias in history, the Dutch Tulip Mania
came to an abrupt end. This may not be a coincidence as there are parallels and cyclical relationships with the
current stock market. Tulips were introduced to the Netherlands in 1593 and quickly gained popularity. Growers
couldn't keep up with the demand and, as a result, speculators entered the market. Bulb prices rose steadily
through the 1630's and peaked in late 1636 and early 1637. Near the end, the mania drove Dutch traders to
irrationality. People began trading anything--money, property, animals--for tulip bulbs. Incredibly, at peak levels,
a single tulip bulb could sell for the price of a luxury house.
Then, on February 2nd, 1637, the tulip mania suddenly collapsed. As Michael Pollan described it in his book, The
Botany of Desire: "On February 2, 1637, the florists of Haarlem gathered as usual to auction bulbs in one of the
tavern colleges. A florist sought to begin the bidding at 1,250 guilders for a quantity of tulips--Switsers, in one
account. Finding no takers, he tried again to 1,100, then 1,000...and all at once every man in the room--men who
days before had themselves paid comparable sums for comparable tulips--understood that the weather had changed.
Haarlem was the capital of the bulb trade, and the news that there were no buyers to be found there ricocheted
across the country. Within days, tulip bulbs were unsellable at any price. In all of Holland a greater fool was no longer
to be found."
JANUARY 30TH, 2016:
The rally continues. Friday's rally was the biggest up day in nearly five months and coincided with the
1/30 spike on my panic scale, resulting in a buying panic. There was also a surprise announcement by
the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates below zero on Friday, shocking many investors. These types of
surprise announcements often have a way of coinciding with spikes on my panic scale. Recall that China
shocked the financial world on August 11th by devaluing the Yuan on the exact date of the 8/11 panic
spike. The Bottoms Indicator says the market turns back down next week and downward pressure on
the stock market increases until 2/20. There is also a 2/20 spike on my Panic Scale, as well.
JANUARY 22ND, 2016:
Nice rally today with world indices up between two to six percent! Here's another view of my Bottoms
Indicator with the S&P 500 for January overlaid. I've merely reversed the bottoms indicator so that
extreme bottom readings appear on the bottom of the chart instead of the top, as it is less confusing
when graphing the market over the indicator. The market found a bottom between the 1/15 and 1/21
cluster and rallied five percent off its intraday lows into today's close. The rally should continue into
next week, and the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday, but I have a lot of danger signals
near the end of next week and the first few days of February (along with a 1/30 spike on my Panic Scale)
which should turn the market back down to test (or exceed) the January lows.
JANUARY 15TH, 2016:
The major indices declined to five months lows today, right into the major 1/15 date on my Bottoms
Indicator. The dates on this indicator can be calculated years in advance and they are published
here months in advance so it's always fascinating when the market sells off into these dates. Looking
ahead, if the market continues to decline past the 1/15 lows next week, it will be in serious trouble
as there are many panic signatures present over the next few weeks. The next major spike on my
panic scale (see panic scale) is on 1/30 but there is a smaller spike on 1/18 which may have contributed
to today's two percent sell-off.
JANUARY 7TH, 2016:
Another day, another trading halt in China. After just 29 minutes of trading, and a seven percent
decline, authorities were forced to close the stock market for the second time this week. The "circuit
breakers" did not have the desired effect and, just four days after being introduced and trillions in losses,
the Chinese authorities said "My bad" and supended the circuit breakers. The next important turn on
my Bottoms Indicator is 1/15 but the current background and climate is very similar to the August Panic
and we may see outright panic in markets outside China within the new few days.
JANUARY 4TH, 2016:
Major world indices were down 1.5 to 7 percent today to start the new year. Traders in China apparently
couldn't wait to try out the new circuit breakers, which went into effect just today, and tested them more
than once. Panic was in the air.
JANUARY 3RD, 2016:
I've updated the Panic Scale and Bottoms Indicator charts for 2016.The most interesting
observation to be gleaned from these charts is that the three spikes on the panic scale
(on 1/30, 2/20 and 3/5) also match the extreme readings on the Bottoms Indicator
(on 2/1, 2/20 and 3/6) within one day. These two charts are calculated independently
from completely different data sets and the fact that they exhibit extreme readings on the
same dates may indicate enhanced confirmation of the importance of these dates.
JANUARY 2ND, 2016:
Happy New Year! No panic activity in the market during the last two weeks of the year,
however, the Dow and S&P 500 closed the year lower, confirming the research on this site
indicating that a bear market began in 2015 (and in 2014 for the Dow Transports, which is
currently approaching a twenty percent decline from its highs). The outlook for 2016 continues
to be that a bear market is in progress, unless the Dow and S&P500 can prove otherwise by
exceeding their 2015 highs.
DECEMBER 17TH, 2015:
The November 3rd top is still holding and the last two weeks of the year have numerous
panic signatures, in addition to the 12/25 spike on the Panic Scale. The 12/25 spike also
has many similarities to the 5/29/15 panic spike, which coincided with the panic in Asia
and Europe (see the Mahoney Panic Scale link for details). In short, the last two weeks
of 2015 are probably going to be ugly for the stock market.
NOVEMBER 12TH, 2015:
Nice time symmetry between the 2000, 2007 and 2015 (so far) bull market tops. Both
the March, 2000 and May, 2015 tops were followed by failed attemps to make new highs
five and a half months later. The recent three standard deviation, buying panic rally right
into the major November 5th panic timeframe failed to take out the important May highs.
These types of rallies are typically followed by strong corrections and panic selling in the
opposite direction so it looks ominous for the market into the upcoming holidays.
NOVEMBER 3RD, 2015:
The rally is now exceeding three standard deviations. Something big is indeed brewing into
the major 11/5 panic timeframe (see Mahoney Panic Scale).
OCTOBER 31ST, 2015:
It's Halloween so I'm going to tell you all a scary story. The October rally has exceeded two standard
deviations heading right into one of the biggest and most interesting spikes I've ever seen on the Panic
Scale. One component of the November 5th date has numerous links to the crash of 1929. To put it
in perspective, the only other date that comes close in this category is the "flash crash" on May 6, 2010,
which had about half as many relationships to 1929. My opinion is that the market sells off hard next
week with possible panic selling but, since we're only four trading days away from November 5th, it is
not out of the question that the market could continue to push the upper limits of standard deviations
for a few more days before taking the plunge. Next week should be memorable and, possibly, very scary.
OCTOBER 4TH, 2015:
How does it know? On September 30th, I made public the updated Mahoney Panic Scale showing the largest
spike of the year on November 5th. The next day, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew informed Congress that
the government will run out of money to pay its bills sooner than expected...on November 5th.
SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2015:
The Mahoney Panic Scale for the fourth quarter of 2015 has been posted.
SEPTEMBER 20TH, 2015:
Here's a magnified view of the Mahoney Bottoms Indicator for the second half of 2015, which was published
here back in May (and is actually calculated years in advance). This view shows August thru October and may
give some guidance on what to expect into October. The rally off the 8/25 closing panic low appears to have
peaked right on the 9/17 extreme low reading on the bottoms indicator for September. This implies that the
market will now sell off into the October 10th autumn peak in the bottoms indicator.
SEPTEMBER 9TH, 2015:
The ghost of 1929. The stock market is replaying the 1929 crash, shown most clearly in the Nasdaq index.
September 14th is the most likely day for a world-wide panic. The next spike on my panic scale is September 15th.
AUGUST 27TH, 2015:
Another strong rally and the biggest two day percentage gain (over six percent) for the major indices since
2008/2009. This is consistent with my indicators. From here, the most likely path for the market is a couple
days of consolidation, or a minor pullback, followed by one more big rally day around the middle of next week
which marks the top of this rally before the market heads back down throughout September.
AUGUST 26TH, 2015:
There it is! The biggest "up" day in nearly four years today. I was a little early on the exact timing of the big rally but
all's well that ends well. It has been a roller coaster ride the last few days but, in the end, the major indices made
their panic intraday lows at the open on 8/24 and their closing lows exactly on the Mahoney Bottoms Indicator date of
8/25 (see Mahoney Bottoms Indicator link).
AUGUST 24TH, 2015:
Well, it wasn't pretty and not exactly the way I envisioned it, but anyone brave enough to buy the open
today has a nice profit and caught the panic intraday low I expected for today, within one trading day
of the spike on my panic scale and within one trading day of the low on my Bottoms Indicator. The major
indices had a five percent intraday rally off the lows today but my forecast for the largest "up" day of the
year, today, will also probably be one day off and occur tomorrow, August 25th. The market should continue
to rally strongly for a few days before turning back down. I'll have more to say about the dangers awaiting
the market in September in the coming days.
AUGUST 23RD, 2015:
Who's ready for a rally tomorrow?! The Sunday overnight S&P 500 futures are down hard as I write this,
however, I'm not expecting a crash tomorrow. There may be a lot of volatility, with some scary intraday
plunges tomorrow but, by late afternoon, it should become apparent to traders that the stock market is not
going to crash and I expect there to be a huge rally in the last couple hours, resulting in possibly the biggest
"up" day of the year. There is also a bottom due on the Mahoney Bottoms indicator for August 25th (see link)
and the intraday lows made during tomorrow's expected volatility will fall within one day of that target and
should satisfy the forecast.
AUGUST 21ST, 2015 (P.M.):
Right on schedule with a three percent down day on August 21st.
AUGUST 21ST, 2015 (A.M.):
It's time. The stock market cannot escape its fate.
AUGUST 20TH, 2015:
No recovery into the close and the worst down day in over a year. Market action is consistent with my forecast
for panic selling into 8/21. We could see a three to six percent down day on August 21st.
AUGUST 20TH, 2015:
The "Final Destination" plot thickens. Our protagonist, the U.S. stock market, after breathing a sigh of relief that
it did not suffer the same terrible fate as the rest of the world last week, is starting to get the uneasy feeling that
all is not well. Watch today's last hour of trading closely. If the market can't recover and sells off into the close,
there's a pretty good chance that there's going to be a waterfall decline and panic tomorrow, 8/21.
AUGUST 16TH, 2015:
For the first time in several months, my very short term trading day cycles (down to the hourly and minute charts)
turn negative this week and will become increasingly negative over the next several weeks, putting the micro-cycles
in sync in a downward direction with the larger calendar day macro-cycles shown elsewhere on this site. Also, of
note, is that supporting cycles indicate that August 21st may be more important than originally shown on the
panic scale (see chart below). There is a bottom due on the Mahoney Market Bottoms Indicator on 8/25 which is
closely tied to possible panic activity around 8/21.
AUGUST 12TH, 2015:
Final Destination meets Dead Man Walking. Stock markets around the world were mired in a sea of red all day with most
indices closing down between one to four percent after the China Yuan devaluation. The U.S. market, however,
amazingly pulled itself back from the edge of the abyss, once again, today and managed to actually post a higher
close in the S&P 500. In the film, Final Destination, the protagonists cheat death after one of them has a premonition of a
plane exploding and they disembark before the plane takes off and explodes. All is seemingly well until, one by one,
each of the characters is subsequently killed in ever more gruesome accidents as death reclaims those who managed to
escape their fates. The stock market cannot escape its fate either and the universe generally unfolds about the way it
should in the end.
AUGUST 11TH, 2015:
Putting it all together. I've shown the importance of the May 20th top from a historical perspective and the 9,000 day cycle. July
31st, 2015 was the most important cycle date in 25 Years, based on my proprietary low to high, high to low, low to low and high
to high cycles. The bull market death spiral (see link) has accurately predicted the exact date of the all-time high in the Dow Transports,
a leading economic indicator, currently over ten percent off all-time highs. Now, China has shocked financial markets with a currency
devaluation on the exact date of the peak in the Panic Scale on August 11th (see Mahoney Panic Scale link), sparking fears of igniting
a currency war that could destabilize the global economy.
The May 19th/20th tops in the Dow and S&P 500 appear to have been the actual bull market price tops but
7/31, or August 11th, may eventually be viewed by market historians as the point at which market psychology
decidedly flipped to bearish and the markets actually started to sell off strongly...the point of recognition. This
often happens. A top is made and the market goes nowhere for months and then, all of a sudden, the collapse
comes. There are several potential market panic scenarios I am watching over the next several weeks;
one of them is the 1997 repeat (see chart below). The current market has tracked 1997 fairly closely since
the May top and a panic this week would be within a few days of the corresponding 1997 panic. That would
actually be a best-case scenario because the alternative panic scenarios over the next couple months are
much worse. Of course, if the market can find a way to make a new all-time high in the face of all these
negative influences, then I am wrong.